Saturday, March 18, 2006

Hung parliament at next election?

A cabinet minister will warn Labour tomorrow that it faces the prospect of a hung parliament after the next general election.

Peter Hain, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and Wales, will urge Labour to turn its guns on to the Liberal Democrats, accusing the third party of conspiring with the Tories to push Labour out of office.

Mr Hain is the first minister to raise the prospect that Labour may lose its overall majority. Academics believe there is a stronger possibility of a hung parliament than for many years if the Tories maintain their recovery under David Cameron. They predict that a Tory lead of between one and 12 points over Labour in the share of the vote would leave no party with an overall majority.

"Equally, the Liberals' anti-Labour strategy means that their best bet is a hung parliament and joining David Cameron in a coalition," he will say. "Votes for the Lib Dems risk giving the Conservatives a chance to undo all the achievements we have fought for."

Mr Hain will say: "The Cameron camp know they would be defying political gravity to win outright next time: they are coming from too far back, and they don't have the lift-off they need. Indeed they have struck a plateau in the polls nowhere near high enough for the huge swing they need."

Personally I can't see a Liberal-Conservative coalition government but if this hung parliament happens then its going to be a good thing. I dont think any coalition will last for the full 5 years so they will have to call for another election. The more elections there are the more it will benefit the BNP in the long run.

A Liberal-Conservative coalition I think would last a maximum of maybe two years. The fact that the Liberals are in favour of proportional representation and the Conservatives are against it would make the coalition crash and burn.

But anything has to be better than Labour right? Well I dont know, we might end up having the worst of both worlds but a worse country there is then a better chance for the BNP getting into power.

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